Deep Water Intelligence

Research library

Frameworks and field notes organized around evidence, economics, risk, and thesis breakers.

6 files
Public markets

Robotics · Semiconductors · Automation

The Physical AI Stack

A framework for separating durable infrastructure from short-cycle enthusiasm across the robotics value chain.

Compute at the edgeMotion and sensingIntegration economics
SignalStructural
Horizon3–7 years
Public markets

Grid · Generation · Thermal management

Power Behind Compute

Follow the constraint: how growing compute demand changes the opportunity set beyond the data-center operators.

Interconnection queuesPower densityContract durability
SignalCapacity
Horizon2–5 years
Private markets

Liquidity · Pricing · Company quality

The Secondary Window

A disciplined checklist for evaluating access, transfer restrictions, price discovery, and concentration risk in private shares.

Access qualityTrue dilutionExit dependency
SignalSelective
HorizonDeal-specific
Macro

Supply · Returns · Competition

Read the Capital Cycle

Why great narratives can produce weak returns—and how new capacity, financing conditions, and competitive response reshape a thesis.

New supplyCost of capitalReturn on incremental capital
SignalRegime
HorizonCycle-aware
Playbooks

Risk · Asymmetry · Survival

Position Sizing Is the Thesis

A practical system for expressing conviction without allowing one decision to determine the future of the portfolio.

Risk budgetInvalidation pointCorrelation check
SignalDiscipline
HorizonAlways
Wealth

Tax · Estate · Concentration

Before the Liquidity Event

The decisions founders and business owners should coordinate before a transaction makes those choices expensive—or impossible.

Entity and basisEstate planningPost-close allocation
SignalPreparation
Horizon12–36 months pre-exit