Implied probability
Translate price carefully and account for fees, spreads, collateral, and market structure.
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Prediction intelligencePrice the future.
Price the future.
Question the crowd.
Track live market-implied probabilities, then connect each possible outcome to the companies, sectors, and assumptions it could affect.
Prediction intelligence
What the market thinks happens next
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Prediction record
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Choose Yes or No on a market above to begin building an accountable track record.
Probability literacy
Use the crowd as a measurement instrument.
A market price can summarize dispersed beliefs, incentives, liquidity, and contract rules. It is not a guarantee and may not equal a clean real-world probability.
Liquidity
Volume, depth, participant diversity, and spread determine how much information a price can contain.
Resolution rules
The exact source, date, wording, and edge cases define what traders are pricing.
Probability change
The direction and speed of repricing can be more useful than the absolute level.
Ambiguous contracts
A vague or unusual resolution condition can detach price from the question you think is being asked.
Thin-market confidence
A small trade can move an illiquid contract dramatically.
Outcome-to-stock leap
Even a correctly priced event may have a misunderstood or already-priced company impact.
Read the rules
Verify dates, sources, definitions, exclusions, and resolution authority.
Check market quality
Inspect spread, depth, volume, participants, and comparable contracts.
Map sensitivities
List the sectors and companies helped, hurt, or unaffected at each outcome.
Update explicitly
Record what new evidence should change your probability and by how much.